© RIA Novosti, Vladimir Trefilov
RIA Rating – may 18. In General, the dynamics of individuals ' deposits in the first quarter was weak, despite decent growth in nominal terms. According to the Bank of Russia, volume of population's deposits for the quarter grew in nominal terms by 3% in real terms, there was a decline of 1.7%. The real quarterly growth rate was the worst since the beginning of 2014, when the results of the first quarter decline in real terms amounted to 3%. According to analysts at RIA Rating, rising in nominal terms is associated with the weakening of the ruble and a significant decline in deposits in real terms to 2020 due to the situation caused by the pandemic coronavirus. First, due to the weakening of the national currency portion of the population tried to preserve their savings from inflation that increased major purchase. Also, due to the quarantine measures, the people withdrew some of the money from deposits and accounts, and is stored in the form of cash. Experts of RIA Rating expects that in the coming months, the pace of Deposit growth will be weak. On the one hand, in conditions of increasing crisis began to decline, real incomes of the population. On the other hand, to support the economy, the Bank of Russia lowered its key rate and announced another possible reduction, which ultimately will reduce the propensity for reducing interest rates on deposits.
In General, over the last 12 months (from 1 April 2019 1 April 2020), the volume of deposits in banks grew in real terms by 7.6%. For comparison, on January 1, 2020 real growth over 12 months was 10.2% and 6.5% on April 1, 2019. Thus, due to isolation and the weakening of the ruble real dynamics of deposits on the sliding segment was at the beginning of 2019.
, the Currency revaluation has increased the concentration of deposits
To assess the situation in the context of individual credit institutions, the Agency RIA rating on the order of AEI PRIME conducted an analysis and prepared a ranking of Russian banks by volume of deposits of physical persons by 1 April 2020. The list included 349 banks (which are included in the register of the Deposit insurance system), which attracts funds from the public and which published the reporting according to the form №101 on the website of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The methodology of rating involves data aggregation working capital statements of the banks.
According to the study, in the first quarter of 2020, population's deposits grew in nominal terms at 196 credit institutions or 56% of the banks presented in the rating. For comparison, over the same period 2019 and 2018 years was 31% and 43%, respectively. Thus, the share of banks with Deposit growth in 2020 was fairly large by the standards of the early years, but that is due to the weakening of the ruble and, accordingly, the foreign currency revaluation. Therefore, this fact cannot be interpreted in a positive way in the development of the banking sector.
Among different size groups of the TOP 300 banks, ranked by size of deposits and divided by one hundred banks, almost all groups were of the same proportion of banks with a Deposit growth of the population, but the result is the major banks was slightly better. So, the banks from the TOP 100 increase of deposits was observed in 61% of the banks. It is worth noting that the largest credit institutions of the rating of the share growth was even higher, so the TOP 25 banks, an increase was observed in 72%. The banks have in the second hundred (101 to 200 seats), the share of banks with the increase in deposits was slightly less than – 58%. The banking group 201 300 places the growth of household deposits was characterized by 50% of the banks.
Large banks are not only characterized by the best positive dynamics in quantitative terms, but in General, higher growth rates of deposits. The volume of deposits, which controls TOP 100 banks, as to the outcome of the Bank on January 1, 2020, increased by 3.2%. The banks of the second hundred (101 to 200 seats) increase in total deposits was markedly less than that – of 1.7%. In turn, banks with 201 to 300 seats, the deposits in the first quarter increased by 1.6%. According to experts RIA Rating, a good result of major banks, as mentioned above, due to a larger share of foreign currency deposits and, accordingly, a large effect of a currency revaluation. In conditions of isolation competitive advantage of large banks is a well-developed network of ATMs.
The difference in the dynamics of deposits of individuals in different size groups has led to a further increase in the concentration of population. The share of the TOP 10 credit institutions in the Deposit market in the first quarter of 2020 increased by 0.4 percentage points to 78.9% as at 1 April 2020. On the TOP 25 banks in the current ranking accounts for 89.1% of deposits (+0.2 percentage points per quarter). The share of the TOP 100 rose 0.1 percentage points to 98.4%.
Foreign banks showed the largest nominal increase in deposits
According to the study, conducted by experts from RIA Rating, the first quarter became the most successful foreign banks in attracting funds of individuals. According to experts RIA Rating, the total amount of deposits from foreign banks in the early 2020 increased by 6.2%. While deposits in state banks increased by 3.2%, and private banks a growth of 2.5%. It is worth noting that historically in foreign banks a high share of foreign currency deposits, so the high growth rate of deposits on the balance sheets of foreign banks is largely due to foreign currency revaluation.
The top ten largest banks in the last 12 months, as of 1 April 2020, has not changed very much. Among the 10 largest returned the PSB, which in the current ranking is 9th place. It should be noted that PSB were last in the top ten in October 2018. At the same time to strengthen its position, the Bank was able, thanks to the growth of deposits by 52% for the year, which was the largest gain in the TOP 50 banks. Also to strengthen its position in the top ten could Bank GPB (Gazprombank), which for the year rose by two positions in the current ranking is 3rd place. On the other hand, banks which are unable to hold their positions became Rosselkhozbank and sovkombank. In the ranking of April 1, Rosselkhozbank occupies the 5th place (-2 positions) and Sovcombank – 10th place (-1 position). Mail the Bank and do left and top ten in the current ranking at the 11th place.
Among banks from first hundred the largest increase in deposits in absolute terms was characterized by the savings Bank, the deposits of which in the first quarter increased by 290 billion rubles. The second magnitude of the increase was the VTB Bank, the growth of funds on accounts of natural persons amounted to 238 billion rubles. The third and the fourth banks for Deposit growth in the first quarter were Bank GPB (Gazprombank) and Raiffeisenbank, and the volume of deposits they increased by 97 and 59 billion respectively. The top five banks in the growth of deposits in absolute terms, the agricultural Bank, which deposits for the quarter increased by 51 billion rubles. Thus, four of the five banks with the highest growth – the state banks, although in General this type of banks are not able to stay ahead of foreign banks. It is worth noting that the first five have provided a little more than 85% of the total nominal growth of deposits of the banking sector.
the Largest reduction in deposits among the hundred largest banks was characterized by SMP Bank, whose deposits for the first quarter decreased by 13 billion rubles. Also a significant reduction in deposits was observed in Mosoblbank, deposits which decreased by RUB 11 billion. The third and fourth reduction deposits steel Mail Bank and Renaissance Credit, a decline they have made 9 and 7 billion rubles accordingly.
The leader in relative growth among the TOP 100 banks by amount of deposits was the BANK ORENBURG. In the first quarter of the deposits of this Bank increased more than 50%. According to analysts at RIA Rating, a significant growth of deposits associated with the accession in the beginning of the year Bank of Russia, and without taking into account the merged BANK ORENBURG could be characterized by a decrease in deposits. Second, the growth rate of deposits among the largest Expobank, the growth of deposits which increased by 37%. Third and fourth place among the largest was taken by the Bank United capital Bank INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CLUB, the growth of deposits which amounted to 34% and 26%, respectively.
According to analysts at RIA Rating, the situation with coronavirus will continue to negatively affect the dynamics of deposits in the short term. However, it is too early to predict the timing of the end of the crisis in Russia and in the world, so the Outlook for the restoration of real growth of deposits is also uncertain.
the Rating of banks by amount of deposits on April 1, 2020 in PDF format >>
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