Pavel Ryabov: a Significant part of the economy will remain in perpetual quarantine

, Plus the aggravation of the trade war.

Came out quite detailed data on the real sector of the economy after a full month of blocking. It will allow us to assess who is affected and to what extent? Statistics on the United States, because he was the first who published detailed statistics after the first month of the siege.

the Fall in retail sales in April 2020 to February 2020 (the last month before the quarantine) is 23.4% at par and about the same in real terms.

This is the fastest dive not only since the publication of the report of retail sales in new methodology by segments (January 1992), but the quick dip in the history of the US as a whole for all types of retail sales. In nominal terms, retail sales fell to levels seen in mid-2012, and adjusted for inflation to 11-year low. All growth from 2010 was destroyed in just 2 months.

The strongest response in the implementation of clothes and shoes – a drop in sales by 90% in 2 months at face value.

The sale of furniture, accessories and home goods fell by more than 3 times (67%). Sales of computers, electronics and digital technology have also collapsed by almost three times. The transition to remote work, it would seem, not much has helped this segment, but most of the goods sold through online delivery and that's in a different category.

sales Volume in the segment of public catering (cafes, bars, restaurants, etc.) has fallen off twice since February. Census includes it in retail sales, although formally it refers to the service sector. Also twice reduced sales of sporting goods, items for recreation/leisure activities and Hobbies. The implementation of gasoline and fuel decreased by 40% and this surprisingly good result, considering that the fall was because of decrease in traffic and due to lower selling prices of gasoline.

Several unusual dynamics in pharmacies and shops selling health products – services are not taken into account. Despite the viral mass hysteria and the compulsion to masks, disinfectant products, the sales volume decreased by a significant 11%. Retail sales grew in the segment of food, beverages and online sales – 14% almost.

Below the dynamics of all key segments of US retail sales in nominal terms for the month (mln).

The most devastating losses in the clothing, electronics and furniture sales.

The prom.production is also falling at a record pace.

Per month reduction of almost 12%. For 100 years, not seen anything like that – absolutely unprecedented collapse. In the crisis of 2008-2009, industrial production took 1.5 years to fall by 17%, now for 2 months collapsed together at 15.3%.

In April 2020 prom.US production is at the level of the March-April 2010. Again minus 10 years 2 months.

The most terrifying dynamics in the tech industry with high processing depth and high number of production iterations – automotive industry and air/space. The first fell by 80%, the second at 28.6%

And the automotive industry at more than half a century.

Falls to zero everything to do with textiles and clothing, h o, and food production fell.

The drop is due to a stop of work of public catering, schools, kindergartens, which took up a significant part of food production. Plus, this was observed for the forced stops in many plants and farms, particularly for the production of beef.

The chemical and oil refining is reduced to the lowest level in a quarter century.

A decrease in orders from the construction led to the collapse of steel production.

Perhaps the only industry in the United States, which is practically not affected – manufacture of computers, electronic components and accessories.

, Not only now, but in General – is the only thing that it has risen steadily in recent years.
But still oil production and gas – to enter the category Mining. Despite the unprecedented pricing, the industry is still kept

Economic terrorism as a result of viral hysteria was worth 10 years of economic growth in just 2 months — for the US, where the embargo measures were approximately two times more lenient on France, Spain, UK and Italy. You can imagine what a catastrophe in Europe. Russia, which is the trip level of the economy is in the middle between USA and France/Italy for 2 quarter maybe a third of the economy to be disposed of. It will overlap another energy shock and the lack of any meaningful support of business and population from the authorities.  With the release from quarantine, nothing is over, everything is just beginning, because a significant part of the economy will remain on "eternal quarantine"  Adaptive capacity, measures of support and sensitivity is always different, so that the trajectory of the global rebalance will grow and political confrontation. In fact, what we see is already worsening US-China

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