Yegor Susin: the Credit crunch comparable to the year 2015

Count the losses.

Frank RG (@frank_rg) has published a report ( the volume of issuance of retail loans in April (no credit cards), the amount issued in April loans declined by 45% relative to April of last year and amounted to 438.8 billion. This may mean that in April the portfolio of outstanding loans to individuals decreased by ~0.6% m/m — this is the first reduction in 2016. Annual loan growth slowed to 15%. If we add about 1.1% of monthly interest payments to service the loan – in General we can say that the population in April, repaid loans and interest worth up to 300 billion rubles, credit factor makes a negative contribution to the sources of funding of expenditure of population (as a factor of falling revenues).

In the context of understanding levels fall, it may make sense to look at the issuance of loans relative to the portfolio, removing seasonal effects. If you do this – the volume of lending in April fell to ~2.2% of the total loan portfolio (without credit cards) relative to March, the credit portfolio (adjusted for seasonal factors) decreased by 1.1%. In General, the drop is comparable to the lows of 2015.

Previously in may, the situation is comparable to the April… the proportion of those who were able to use vacation credit is calculated as a percentage, the proportion of those who fell in the difficult economic situation – tens of percents, creating a line of problems in the second half.

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