Alex Baharov: unwillingness to take responsibility

Reflecting on the President's speech.

Politics and Economics are inextricably linked, and often impossible to consider one in isolation from the other. Now on the agenda questions about how the country will emerge from "quarantine" and what will the World after the removal of all restrictions. In reality it is impossible to predict and will be solved dynamically, adapting to current circumstances. This applies to all countries without exception.

Yesterday President Vladimir Putin has delivered a message ( I read it three times to understand properly formed my first impression and if I don't miss something important in mind. To my deep regret, there is no miss. So here's my conclusion:

  • The message itself contains a lot of water and reservations/referrals to local authorities, CPS, etc. one gets the impression that the Federal government is trying to distance themselves from the problems caused by the regime of isolation and to shift the responsibility to the regional authorities. These arguments gain more weight in light of a study of Putin's rating, which fell to a historic low.
  • “the Mode of working days” like, is removed at the Federal level on may 12, but as mentioned the paragraph above the final decision is at the discretion of local authorities. In the same Moscow little changed, and the opening of construction sites and industrial enterprises is likely due to a desire to ease social tensions, especially among guest workers. But if you look at the graph of the growth infected, then Russia may 10 reached the maximum (and this may be an error in the data in 11, you need to look for 3-5 days). I will remind, in China the first major breaks were held after 38 days after peak. So, either we see in the action of confirmation, paragraph 1, or the real power in a hurry with the release, risking to pass on the razor's edge as the rest of the world (
  • Had been promised a lot of regular tax benefits, which, of course, good. And obviously under the pressure of circumstances and loud statements, the government took the decision on direct support for families. It is sad that in our country the government does not act proactive. This leads to many unpleasant consequences, both economic and political point of view.

At the moment, we as investors can only observe how things will develop in the situation of isolation in the regions. This will give an idea of the size differences of the statements of the President and real cases.

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