Almost a third of debtors who are experiencing financial difficulties, explain the non-payment lack of work, according to the Association of collection agencies. During the year their share has grown by half
Photo: Evgeny Reasonable / statements / TASS
The month of the regime of self-isolation in Moscow and many regions downgraded the creditworthiness of Russian borrowers, RBC reported in the major banks and the National Association of professional collection agencies (NAPCA).
In April, the proportion of debtors who refuse to pay the loans due to financial difficulties, increased by 10 percentage points to 60%, calculated in the NAPCA-based statistics collection agencies. A year ago, only 18% of these customers explained defaults from job loss in April was 30%. In addition, up to 40% the proportion of those who link their financial difficulties with a drop in revenues (+10 percentage points).
the Demand for loans switched to growth after the failure of self-isolation
«Despite the fact that the debtors expressly refer to the coronavirus in fact, only in isolated cases. — not more than 1% — we understand that the pandemic has become a powerful factor negatively affecting the debtors" — said the President of NAPCA Elman Mehdiyev. Statistics collection agencies reflects the behavior of borrowers who have experienced problems with payment of credits. But the regime of self-isolation has an impact on customers that previously did not allow of delay, adds the interlocutor of RBC.
The large banks surveyed by RBC confirms the deterioration of payment discipline of borrowers.
“At the moment a large number of customers do associate the violation for the payment of loans to the pandemic. Mostly the reasons for failing to make payment on the loan is called loss of jobs or reduction of income”, — said the representative of the savings Bank.
In April, more and more borrowers indicated a pandemic coronavirus as the cause of delay, said a representative of VTB. The proportion of debtors who cite a job loss or lack of work due to the mode of isolation, increased compared to previous months at 20–50%, he added.
Gazprombank in April recorded a growth of overdue debt by 0.2 percentage points, said his spokesman. The growth failure of borrowers to pay debts in Gazprombank consider minor and associated with the decrease of client's income and regime isolation.
Every seventh client of Promsvyazbank has already allowed the delay pins its problems with falling revenues amid the pandemic, said a representative of the credit institution. But the complexity of the repayment obligations begin to experience and loyal customers who are faced with a drop in or loss of income in March—April. “In the course of telephone consultations, people tell us that their company has suspended operations due to the limitations of coronavirus, and not all employers, especially small businesses, retain employees, even part of income”, — adds a representative of the PSB.
According to the Deputy Director of Department of analytical management of ROSBANK Eugene sen'kivs'ke the causes of failures to pay on loans have not changed. But payment discipline is deteriorating. “since April increased the inputs in default on consumer loans, auto loans and mortgage loans, but talk about reducing the solvency of the customers <…> premature”, — says sen'kivs'ke.
In April, the number of allegations of failure to repay the debt grew by 17% in comparison with indicators of February—March, said the head of service on work with problem loans of the Bank «Renaissance Credit» Anastasia Malkova. «About 27% of the cases, borrowers refer to the situation of the coronavirus, more than half of those clients (66%) say the loss of jobs and decrease in income. In comparison with February—March the share of those calls as the primary reasons for reduced income, increased by 24%" &appreciates it.
In the Bank “home Loan» growth failure of the borrowers to repay the debt expect. In Sovcombank declined to comment, other banks from the top 20 did not respond to requests to RBC.
Facing for Russia to the surge in unemployment
According to Rosstat, in February 2020, the unemployment rate in Russia was 4.6% of the total population. Unemployed was considered to be 3.4 million people. In March the figure has not changed significantly and amounted to 4.7%, the research Department.
nonetheless, many economists expect the problems in the field of employment. According to the head of the accounts chamber Alexey Kudrin, the number of unemployed Russians can grow three times — up to 8 million people.
The rating Agency of the AKP has prepared three scenarios for the Russian economy, in each of them laid down growth rate: to 4.8% in the optimistic scenario, to 6.7% in the base and to 8.9% in the pessimistic.
In 2020 unemployment in Russia could reach 7%, predicted the Institute's research and expertise on the web.Of the Russian Federation. Experts also expect a sharp reduction of real incomes of the population — 17.5% in April—June and 6.5% for the year, which will be a record decline in 2014.
the Majority of Russians have no savings in the crisis
Help whether vacation credit
In the year 2020 the proportion of bad loans in Russian banks is expected to double and reach 20% of the portfolio, predicted rating Agency Moody’s. The reason — a simple business due to the isolation and subsequent growth of unemployment. According to the Central Bank on March 1, the portfolio of corporate and retail loans of all banks amounts to 57,5 trillion, 20% of this amount — is about 11.5 trillion.
The Bank of Russia estimated the volume of loans to vulnerable borrowers, at 19 trillion Is loans to individuals, small businesses and companies affected by the crisis industries that could be subject to restructuring, said the head of the regulator Elvira Nabiullina.
In April significantly increased the number of client requests for restructuring or credit vacation, said sen'kivs'ke of ROSBANK.
“People are to negotiate with the Bank — to delay payments, vacation credit, figure out what they have the options of restructuring, and what it takes. The majority of clients expects that within three to six months, they will be able to recover income”, — agrees the representative of the PSB.
Mostly banks are willing to offer borrowers three options for financial support.
Vacation credit for 106-FZ, which was signed by the President on 3 April. The law allows individuals to obtain a temporary postponement of payments if they are faced with a long sickness, loss of job or reduction of income more than 30%. The act provides limitations on amounts of loans.
Mortgage holidays for 76-FZ. The law came into force in August 2019. The postponement of payments can only count mortgage borrowers who are faced with a difficult situation. In contrast, the new allowable vacation credit limit on the loan amount is higher — up to 15 m
A private program banks. Can include both the deferred payment and the restructuring. Activation of such programs may be applicable.
the amount of borrowers said about the problems
According to the Central Bank on April 24, nearly 1 million Russian borrowers have already turned to banks for relief (.pdf). Organizations had to consider 821 thousand statements of citizens. 54.9% of clients have received approval for debt restructuring. About this same level of satisfaction of applications for vacation credit under the new law — 55%. In the end, deferment on loans received 170,1 thousand Russians. The main cause of failure — exceeding the maximum loan amount provided by law.
Collection agencies are not yet seeing a surge in requests for vacation credit or other relief measures announced in NAPCA. «As a rule, the monthly payment to a collection Agency operating in the framework of the Treaty of cession, less than the Bank, and is already quite reasonable for the debtor level. Second, it is possible that customers have a certain reserve of funds which allows them to continue to repay the debt in full», — explains Mehdiyev. But he does not exclude that the preservation of the regime of self-isolation can change the overall picture. «If the situation with the regime of self-isolation will last for another two months, the number of applications will increase and may reach 20% of all debtors by the end of the year», — he concluded.
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