© RIA Novosti, Alexey Kudenko
RIA Rating – 8 may. Dynamics of Russian banking sector assets in the first quarter was quite good. According to the Bank of Russia, the volume of assets in the first three months grew in nominal terms by 8.2%, which was the best quarterly result since the beginning of 2015. For comparison, the quarterly dynamics of assets in the last five years only one third of the cases were above 3%. In absolute terms the assets of Russian banking sector in January-March this year grew by 7.9 trillion rubles to 104.5 trillion rubles on April 1, 2020. It should be noted that the level of 10 trillion rubles in the Russian banking sector was achieved in 2006, that is, decaterina assets of the banks it took 14 years.
The main source of the positive dynamics of the assets in nominal terms in the first quarter of 2020 became the currency revaluation, without taking into account the influence of which the rate of increase was more modest – up 3.3%. However, the real growth rate in the early 2020 has also been quite good, this result became the best for the last five quarters. If you compare it with the first quarters of other years, a result of 2020 was the strongest since 2008. In General, such a strong real increase was a result of the liquidity support of the banking sector by the monetary authorities.
we can not say that a significant influence on the strong currency revaluation and the overall dynamics of the assets had the situation with coronavirus pandemic and the economic crisis caused by it. The main increase occurred in March, when the volume of assets in nominal terms grew by an impressive 6.7 per cent that was the second result on the rate of growth since 2009. The asset growth rate in nominal terms in March are unable to get ahead only the result of Dec 2014, when monthly employment growth of 9%. In this case, as in 2014, real growth was considerably less, which is not surprising against the background of a strongly weakening of the ruble. In General, the dynamics of the assets Parallels lead us to December 2014, the period of strong crisis in the financial system of Russia.
It is worth noting that after a sharp rise in assets at the end of 2014, beginning of 2015 has seen a significant decline in assets. According to analysts at RIA Rating, the situation in 2020 still looks better than in 2014-2015, and a corresponding reduction in assets in the medium term should not be significant.
The impact of withdrawals on the dynamics of the assets in the first quarter almost gone. In the first quarter was forcibly withdrawn only 4 of the license and 14 banks were liquidated. It should be noted that the number of banks whose licenses were revoked by force, decreased compared to the same period in the previous two years strongly enough. For comparison, in the first quarter of 2019 was forcibly revoked 7 licenses, and in 2018 – from 14 banks. The total volume of assets of banks, deprived of licenses in January-March 2020, according to experts RIA Rating, amounted to 21 billion rubles, or 0.02% of the total assets of the banking system on January 1, 2020. In the first quarter of 2019 and 2018, the volume of assets deprived license banks amounted to 61 and 86 billion rubles, respectively. Thus, there is a clear trend of a slowdown in the clearing of the banking sector as the scale and size of the banks.
To assess the situation in the context of individual credit institutions, the Agency RIA rating on the order of AEI PRIME conducted an analysis and prepared a rating of the largest Russian banks in terms of assets on April 1, 2020. The ranking presents data for 431 the Russian credit institutions with valid licenses on 8 may 2020, which published the reporting according to the form №101 on the website of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, as well as data from public sources. The rating methodology involves the aggregation of circulating statements.
Large banks show good results
According to the study, in the first quarter of 2020 the total assets in nominal terms increased from 237 credit institutions or 55 percent of the total banks in the rating. For comparison, in 2015, the result of the first quarter does not exceed 45%, and in 2018 and 2017 at all was only 37% in each of the years. The increase in the share of banks with positive dynamics of assets due to the support of the banking sector in terms of liabilities and, accordingly, significant loan growth and an increase in investments in liquid assets.
Different size groups showed significant differences on the proportion of banks with positive dynamics of assets. In particular, among the largest banks of the TOP 50, the share of banks with asset growth was 82%. In turn, the banks 51 to 100 places the growth of assets was observed in 66% of the banks. The two remaining groups of the TOP 200 – from 101 to 150 from 151 to 200 places the proportion with asset growth of 48% and 62%, respectively. The banks outside the TOP 200 (201 431 sites) 47% of the banks were characterized by the growth of assets in the first quarter of 2020. Thus, only large banks from TOP-50 share of banks with asset growth was much higher.
In terms of money is also in a better position were the big banks. So, most of the major banks from TOP-50 in total assets in the first quarter relative to the result of these same banks on January 1, 2020 increased by 8.8%. Big banks 51 to 100 seat increase in total assets was a little less – of 6.1%. In turn, banks of the second hundred (101 to 200 seats) assets grew by 2.9%. While the remaining banks with 201 431 location total assets decreased by 0.2%. Faster growth of large banks seems quite natural, as the leaders of the banking sector have easier access to the resources allocated for overcoming the consequences of the coronavirus.
As a consequence, a good result among large banks in the beginning of 2020 in the banking system continued to increase in the concentration of assets. The share of the TOP 50 banks in total banking sector assets at 1 April 2020 rose to 92.7% (+0.5 percentage points). The share of TOP 30 banks by the end of the first quarter was 88.3% against 87.7% at the beginning of 2020. It should be noted that in the current ranking of the TOP 100 banks already have to 97.1% (+0.3 percentage points in the quarter). According to experts RIA Rating, in 2020 the consolidation of assets of Russian banking sector will continue and the pace of consolidation will remain about the same large.
Foreign banks are again the leaders on the dynamics
According to the study, conducted by experts from RIA Rating, foreign banks in the first quarter was characterized by the greatest increase in total volume of assets relative to its competitors. The amount of total assets of foreign banks in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 15.8% against a growth of 8.6% in private banks and 7.8% for the state banks. Thus, after a weak result on the basis of 2019, foreign banks regained the leading position. Good trend of the total assets of foreign banks is associated with a significant increase at several large banks actively increased lending at the beginning of 2020.
The top ten largest banks by the end of the first quarter of 2020 was characterized by significant changes. So, among the 10 largest returned UniCredit Bank, which in the current ranking is 10th place. It should be noted that UniCredit Bank left the top ten only one quarter date (1 January 2020). At the same time to strengthen their positions UniCredit Bank was able, thanks to the asset growth of 27% during the first three months, the largest increase among the TOP 15 banks. Also to strengthen its position in the top ten are ALFA-BANK and MOSCOW CREDIT BANK, which moved up one position each to 4-Oh and 7-Oh respectively. On the other hand, banks which are unable to hold their positions were: NCBs NFCs, Bank FK Otkrytiye PAO. In the ranking of April 1, NCO NCC occupying the 5th place, and the Bank FK Otkrytiye PAO – 8th place, each of the banks fell by one position. Bank TRUST and all left the top ten this rating is located on the 14th place, while his assets grew by 2.8%, but the competition they have grown much stronger.
Among the first hundred banks highest asset growth in absolute terms was characterized by Sberbank, the volume of assets in the first quarter increased by 1.9 trillion roubles. It is worth noting that the dynamics of the assets of the Bank due to the growth of all types of lending. The second is the scale of growth of assets was the VTB Bank, the increase in assets which amounted to 1.1 trillion rubles. The dynamics of the assets of this Bank was the result of growth of investments in derivative financial instruments and interbank lending and lending to individuals. the Third and fourth credit institutions in the growth of total assets in the first quarter were Bank GPB (Gazprombank) and ALFA-BANK, whose assets increased by 680 and 570 billion rubles, respectively. The top five credit organizations with the greatest increase in the volume of assets of NCBs NFCs, whose assets increased by $ 520 billion rubles. On the other hand, the largest reduction of assets among the largest banks was characterized by LOKO-Bank, whose assets at the end of the first quarter of 2020 decreased by 26 billion rubles.
The best relative dynamics of assets among the TOP 100 largest credit institutions in the first quarter of 2020 was from a foreign Bank, Creditagricole KIB, whose assets grew by almost 90%, which allowed the Bank to get into the TOP 100 in terms of assets and occupy the 75-th place on April 1, 2020. Second, the growth rate of assets is ING BANK (EURASIA), whose assets increased by 77%, with the result that the Bank was able to take 31st place in the rating (+11 positions). The third on the dynamics of the assets was George.P. Morgan Bank international, the total assets of which increased by 49%, which allowed him to get into the TOP 100 in terms of assets and take 98th place on April 1, 2020. Thus, among the largest banks the most dynamic in terms of growth of assets were foreign banks and two of them came in January-March in the TOP 100 in terms of assets. It is worth noting that 13 banks from the first hundred by assets was characterized by the growth of assets more than 20% in the first quarter of 2020.
on the other hand, the weak relative dynamics of assets among the hundred largest banks showed LOKO-Bank, whose assets decreased by 22%. It is worth noting that the decline in assets of this Bank is due to lower investments in securities and lending. Second, the pace of decline was Nordea Bank, the reduction in assets was 13%. In the current ranking of LOKO-Bank occupies 74-e a place (-12 positions), and Nordea Bank – 68-e a place (5 positions). Third, the pace of decline in assets among the largest banks became the Bank of the UNION, whose assets fell by 11%.
The economic situation is considerably more complicated due to coronavirus and quarantine caused by it. This will naturally affect the banking sector. However more – this may affect the profits and assets of the may be quite good. First, in support of the economy, the state will allocate resources for lending to the real sector (mainly legal entities). Second, to Finance budget expenditures can significantly increase bond borrowing that will lead to the growth of banks ' investments in securities. Against this background, most likely, the growth will be observed in a large number of banks, but higher rates are leading to credit institutions, as well as the most capitalized banks.
the Rating of banks on volume of assets on April 1, 2020 in PDF format >>
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