© RIA Novosti Maksim Bogodvid
RIA Rating – 10 Feb. Ending in 2019 is issued for the Russian banking sector is quite successful. According to the Bank of Russia, the growth of assets in real terms was 5%, which roughly corresponds to the result of the 2018 – 6.2 per cent. In nominal terms asset growth was 2.7% against 10.4% in 2018. This difference in growth related to the effect of currency revaluation. It should be noted that at the beginning of 2019 was the transition to new accounting standards, which negatively impacted the dynamics of the assets. According to experts RIA Rating, the transition to the new accounting standards has reduced the real growth rate in the past year by about 1.5 percentage points. Thus, excluding this transition, the growth of assets in 2019 could outpace the result of 2018 (6,2%) and became the fifth straight year in which the dynamics of real assets improved.
In absolute terms, the volume of assets in 2019 increased by 2.5 trillion rubles, and on January 1, 2020 amounted to 96.6 trillion rubles. Experts of RIA Rating expects that in 2020, the dynamics of assets will be the best – the growth rate will be in the range of 7-10%. Thus, in 2020, will overcome the level of 100 trillion rubles banking sector assets. For comparison, the level of 10 trillion rubles in the Russian banking sector was achieved in 2006, while 1 trillion – in 1998.
The ratio of Bank assets to GDP in 2019 has continued to decline and at year-end has fallen to 88.3 per cent. The negative dynamics of the indicator is observed for the fifth consecutive year. It is worth noting, a local maximum of the ratio of assets to GDP was in 2015, when the ratio was at 100%. Thus, despite the growth of assets, the role of the banking sector in the economy in recent years, declined slightly.
The situation with revocation of banking licenses in 2019 has improved markedly. Over the past year, was forcibly revoked 28 licenses from credit institutions and NGOs and, 46 banks were liquidated. For comparison, in 2018, lost the license 60 credit institutions, and in 2017 – 63. The total volume of banks ' assets, forcibly deprived of the license in 2019, according to estimates of RIA Rating, amounted to 120 billion rubles. Whereas in 2018 and 2017, the banks ' assets forcibly deprived of licenses was 0.5 and 1.2 trillion rubles, respectively. Thus, the Russian banking sector in 2019 has missed only 0.1 percentage points of growth of assets in nominal terms against the order of 0.6% and 1.5% in 2018 and 2017. According to experts RIA Rating, in 2020, will be further reduced players in the Russian a can system, however, licenses will be losing mostly small banks, as a consequence of the influence on the dynamics of total assets will be minimal.
To assess the situation in the context of individual credit institutions, the Agency RIA rating on the order of AEI PRIME conducted an analysis and prepared a rating of the largest Russian banks by assets on January 1, 2020. The ranking presents data for 437 credit organisations of Russia with a valid license on February 10, 2020, which published the reporting according to the form №101 on the website of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, as well as data from public sources. The rating methodology involves the aggregation of circulating statements.
According to the study, in 2019 the volume of assets in nominal terms rose from 264 to credit institutions or of 60.4% of the banks represented in the current ranking. For comparison, in 2018 and 2017, the share of banks with growth was almost the same (61% in 2018, and in 2017 – 60%). As mentioned earlier, at the beginning of 2019 was the transition to new accounting standards, due to which the share of banks with growth in the beginning of the year has significantly decreased, therefore, the result of the last year without this transition could be a little better. Against this background, the experts of the RIA Rating expects that by the end of 2020 the share of banks with growth will increase to 65-70%.
Large and medium-sized banks show good results
The results of the study indicate that different size group of the TOP 200 almost did not differ in the number of banks with gain. Thus, among banks located from 101 to 150 seats, the share of banks with asset growth was 72%, which was the best result among all size groups. In turn, the banks 51 to 100 places the growth of assets was observed in 70% of the banks. The two remaining groups of the TOP 200 – from TOP-50 and with 151 to 200 seats, the proportion of growth assets was the same – 68%. The banks outside the TOP 200 (201 437 places) only 52% of the banks were characterized by the growth of assets in 2019. Thus, the result of large and medium-sized banks was significantly better than small credit institutions outside the TOP 200.
In monetary terms, in a better situation were the big banks. The total assets of the banks from TOP-50 on the result of these same banks on January 1, 2019 4.5%. Also, a significant growth of assets was observed in banks from 51 to 100 place, whose assets increased by 4.4%. The banks of the second hundred (101 to 200 seats), the volume of total assets increased only by 0.7%. Outside the TOP 200 (201 437 places) total assets virtually unchanged – +0.1 percent. It should be noted that in General, the growth in assets of the banks compared their own result to the beginning of 2019 was 4.4%.
As a consequence, a very good result at the big banks and relatively weak small banks in the Russian banking sector continued the growth trend of the concentration of assets. The share of the TOP 50 banks in total banking sector assets on January 1, 2020 increased to 92.2% (+0.8 percentage points). The share of the TOP 30 banks for the year amounted to 87.7% vs 86.5% at the beginning of 2019. It should be noted that in the current ranking for the TOP 100 banks accounted for 96.8 per cent (+0.5 percentage points per year). According to experts RIA Rating, in 2020 the consolidation of assets of Russian banking sector will continue and the pace of consolidation will remain about the same.
Assets have grown all types of banks, but foreign banks is somewhat weaker
According to the study, conducted by experts from RIA Rating, all types of banks by type of owners (state, private and foreign) in 2019 was characterized by the growth of assets. The best the dynamics of the assets has demonstrated to the private banks, which helped them to strengthen their position relative to public and foreign banks. Thus, the increase in assets from private banks in 2019 amounted to 4.9%, against a growth of 4.4% from government and 3% from foreign banks. It is worth noting that the good result of private banks is associated with a significant increase at several large banks, which increased corporate and retail lending.
The payroll of the top ten banks per year has not changed, but the change in attitudes was significant. The changes in the top ten were the result of nonuniform growth rate of assets, which varied in wide range from +60,5% to -23%. The highest growth of assets in the top ten has characterized the Bank FK Otkrytiye PAO, whereas a decrease – Bank TRUST. Due to the significant asset growth of the Bank FK Otkrytiye PAO was able to rise to positions 2 to 7 on place, while Bank TRUST lost two positions and took 10th place. Also in the top ten dropped one position each: the agricultural Bank and CREDIT BANK of MOSCOW, which in the current ranking is 6-th and 8-th places respectively, while to strengthen their positions are ALFA-BANK and Promsvyazbank, which in ranking on January 1, ranked 5th and 9th places respectively.
Among the first hundred banks highest asset growth in absolute terms was characterized by the Bank FK Otkrytiye PAO, whose assets in 2019 increased by more than 1 trillion rubles. It is worth noting that the dynamics of the assets of the Bank due to the merger with b & n, and also increasing corporate and retail lending. The second is the scale of growth of assets was Sberbank, whose assets grew by 0.8 trillion rubles. The dynamics of Sberbank assets due to the growth of retail lending and the growth of investments in securities. Third and fourth credit institutions in the growth of total assets in 2019 steel Promsvyazbank and ALFA BANK, whose assets increased by 670 and 420 billion rubles, respectively. The top five banks with the largest increase in the volume of assets of CREDIT BANK of MOSCOW, the assets of which increased by 267 billion rubles. On the other hand, the largest reduction of assets among the largest banks was characterized by Bank TRUST – -397 billion rubles.
The best relative dynamics of assets among the TOP 100 largest credit institutions by the end of 2019 was already mentioned earlier, the Bank FK Otkrytiye PAO. Second, the growth rate of assets was Tinkoff Bank assets which grew by 46%, causing the Bank was able to take 18th place in the rating (+8 positions per year). The third on the dynamics of the assets was the Bank BUILDING.Of the Russian Federation, the total assets of which increased by 43% (+10 positions in the ranking is occupied 29-e a place). It should be noted that 6 banks from the first hundred by assets in 2019 was characterized by the growth of assets, more than 30%.
On the other hand, the weak relative dynamics of assets among the hundred largest banks showed GCF Bank, whose assets decreased by 36% due to the decrease of investments in securities and the revaluation of the quality of the loan portfolio of legal entities. Second, the pace of decline was MOSOBLBANK, the reduction in assets was 30%. In the current ranking of the CSG, the Bank ranked 96th place (-22 positions), and MOSOBLBANK – 27-e a place (-8 positions). Third, the pace of decline in assets among the largest banks became Bank TRUST, whose assets fell by 23%. Thus, it is reorganized banks in 2019 showed the highest decrease in assets.
According to analysts at RIA Rating, in 2020, with high probability we can assume that the dynamics of the assets can become the best in recent years, and the increase will be about 7-10%. This is due to the economic recovery against the background of national projects, the growth of social spending and just a new cycle of investment growth. You can also expect significant growth in lending due to lower interest rates. Most likely, the growth will be observed in most banks, but the highest rates will be among the leading credit institutions. Thus, the year 2020 will be quite successful for the Russian banking sector.
the Rating of banks in terms of assets on January 1, 2020 in PDF format >>
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